Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/26344
Title: Tourism forecast combination using the CUSUM technique
Authors: Chan, CK 
Witt, SF
Lee, YCE
Song, H 
Keywords: Combination weights
Forecast combination
Quadratic programming
Tourism forecasts
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Tourism management, 2010, v. 31, no. 6, p. 891-897 How to cite?
Journal: Tourism management 
Abstract: Forecast combination in tourism has emerged as an important research area due to its relevance to tourism decision making. This paper further investigates the impact of forecast combination on forecast accuracy by applying a quadratic programming approach to determine the combination weights for individual forecasts. In particular, we introduce three novel ideas which have not been found in previous tourism forecasting studies. First, we introduce a quality control technique, CUSUM, to determine the time for updating the weights. Next, we develop a hybrid method (using quadratic programming) to combine the forecasts to reduce forecasting errors. Thirdly, we investigate whether different performance measures yield different results. Thus, instead of comparing different weighting methods using only one performance measure, we introduce several indicators for performance comparisons. The empirical results suggest that the controlled weighting method both saves time in updating the combination weights and improves the overall performance of the combined forecasts. The method is also easy-to-implement and should be used to improve forecasting accuracy in practice.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/26344
ISSN: 0261-5177
EISSN: 1879-3193
DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2009.10.004
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