Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/24428
Title: Risk analysis of traffic and revenue forecasts for road investment projects
Authors: Lam, WHK 
Tam, ML
Issue Date: 1998
Source: Journal of infrastructure systems, 1998, v. 4, no. 1, p. 19-27 How to cite?
Journal: Journal of Infrastructure Systems 
Abstract: In this paper, a simulation model for risk analysis making use of the Monte Carlo technique is devised to incorporate the uncertainty in traffic and revenue forecasts for road investment projects. The risk analysis would give the traffic and revenue forecasts in specified years with a particular probability, or vice versa. These traffic and revenue forecasts and their probability levels will help the authorities or the private sector evaluate road investment projects scientifically and systematically. A case study of the proposed Zhuhai Neilingding Crossing is used to illustrate the application of the risk analysis model. Demand elasticity is also introduced to investigate the effects of different toll charges on traffic demand, together with sensitivity analysis on some of the key variables behind the traffic and revenue forecasts.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/24428
ISSN: 1076-0342
Appears in Collections:Journal/Magazine Article

Access
View full-text via PolyU eLinks SFX Query
Show full item record

SCOPUSTM   
Citations

21
Citations as of Sep 16, 2017

Page view(s)

29
Last Week
0
Last month
Checked on Sep 24, 2017

Google ScholarTM

Check



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.