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Title: Modeling stochastic perception error in the mean-excess traffic equilibrium model
Authors: Chen, A
Zhou, Z
Lam, WHK 
Keywords: Mean-excess travel time
Perception error
Stochastic user equilibrium
Travel time budget
Travel time reliability
Variational inequality
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Transportation research. Part B, Methodological, 2011, v. 45, no. 10, p. 1619-1640 How to cite?
Journal: Transportation research. Part B, Methodological 
Abstract: In this paper, we extend the α-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium (METE) model of Chen and Zhou (Transportation Research Part B 44(4), 2010, 493-513) by explicitly modeling the stochastic perception errors within the travelers' route choice decision processes. In the METE model, each traveler not only considers a travel time budget for ensuring on-time arrival at a confidence level α, but also accounts for the impact of encountering worse travel times in the (1 - α) quantile of the distribution tail. Furthermore, due to the imperfect knowledge of the travel time variability particularly in congested networks without advanced traveler information systems, the travelers' route choice decisions are based on the perceived travel time distribution rather than the actual travel time distribution. In order to compute the perceived mean-excess travel time, an approximation method based on moment analysis is developed. It involves using the conditional moment generation function to derive the perceived link travel time, the Cornish-Fisher Asymptotic Expansion to estimate the perceived travel time budget, and the Acerbi and Tasche Approximation to estimate the perceived mean-excess travel time. The proposed stochastic mean-excess traffic equilibrium (SMETE) model is formulated as a variational inequality (VI) problem, and solved by a route-based solution algorithm with the use of the modified alternating direction method. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed SMETE model and solution method.
ISSN: 0191-2615
EISSN: 1879-2367
DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2011.05.028
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