Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/17592
Title: Analyzing and forecasting tourism demand : a rough sets approach
Authors: Goh, C
Law, R 
Mok, HMK
Keywords: Rough sets
Tourism demand analysis
Qualitative noneconomic factors
Leisure time
Climate
Issue Date: 2008
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Source: Journal of travel research, 2008, v. 46, no. 3, p. 327-338 How to cite?
Journal: Journal of travel research 
Abstract: This article reports a study that applies the rough sets algorithm to tourism demand analysis. Empirical outcomes are a set of automated but practical decision rules for practitioners from data that have a high degree of vagueness. We also introduce two new measures of qualitative noneconomic factors, namely a leisure time index and climate index into the forecasting framework. On the basis of long-haul U.S. and U.K. tourism demand for Hong Kong, empirical results show that leisure time and climate have stronger impacts on tourist arrivals than economic factors. Comprehensible decision rules are generated and tourism demand forecasts attain an accuracy of up to 80%. The findings put forward the importance of qualitative non - economic factors in travel motivation theory and demand analysis.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/17592
ISSN: 0047-2875
EISSN: 1552-6763
DOI: 10.1177/0047287506304047
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