Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/17034
Title: Multigeneration innovation diffusion : the impact of intergeneration time
Authors: Pae, JH
Lehmann, DR
Issue Date: 2003
Source: Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 2003, v. 31, no. 1, p. 36-45
Abstract: This research focuses on the diffusion patterns of the adjacent generations of technology and its relation to the time that elapses between them (intergeneration time). The authors analyze 45 new technologies in 15 industries and find that the adoption curves systematically vary across generations from 2 years for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips to more than 30 years for steelmaking. The longer the intergeneration time, the slower the adoption of the subsequent technology. Even though once the adoption begins imitation is greater for subsequent technologies, the slow initial innovation rate, driven by resistance to upgrading, retards adoption. The authors also demonstrate that predictions based on intergeneration time plus average patterns are more accurate than data-based predictions early in life cycles when such predictions are most crucial. Improved early predictions can provide advantages in terms of both making go versus no-go decisions and planning marketing and production.
Publisher: Springer
Journal: Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science 
ISSN: 0092-0703
EISSN: 1552-7824
DOI: 10.1177/0092070302238601
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