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Title: Predicting quarterly Hong Kong tourism demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points with composite leading indicators
Authors: Kulendran, N
Wong, KKF
Keywords: Tourism forecasting
Growth rate cycle
Composite leading indicator
Error magnitude measure
Turning point error
Directional change error
Issue Date: 2009
Publisher: IP Publishing Ltd
Source: Tourism economics, 2009, v. 15, no. 2, p. 307-322 How to cite?
Journal: Tourism economics 
Abstract: This study predicts numerical demand growth rates, directional changes and turning points in the growth rate using the single input leading indicator model and assesses its forecasting performance with the ARIMA model and the no-change model. To assess the forecasting performance from the March quarter of 2004 to the December quarter of 2006, models are fitted to the growth rates of Hong Kong inbound tourism demand from selected tourism markets (Australia, Japan, the UK and the USA). Composite leading indicators for the single input leading indicator model are constructed from selected national leading and lagged indicators. To avoid false signals in turning points, a method is specified to identify the correct turning points in tourism demand growth rates. The prediction performance of these models is then examined, based on the mean absolute percentage error, directional change error and turning point error. A statistical procedure is considered to determine whether the actual and predicted directional changes and turning points are independent or associated.
ISSN: 1354-8166
EISSN: 2044-0375
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