Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13959
Title: A traffic flow simulator for short-term travel time forecasting
Authors: Lam, WHK 
Chan, KS
Shi, JWZ 
Issue Date: 2002
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Source: Journal of advanced transportation, 2002, v. 36, no. 3, p. 265-291 How to cite?
Journal: Journal of advanced transportation 
Abstract: This paper presents an off-line forecasting system for short-term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic low simulator (TFS) is developed for short-term travel time forecasting (in terms of off-line forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin-destination (O-D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O-D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short-term travel time forecasting by O-D pair can also be assessed and the O-D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off-line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13959
ISSN: 0197-6729
EISSN: 2042-3195
DOI: 10.1002/atr.5670360305
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