Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13497
Title: Polar motion modeling, analysis, and prediction with time dependent harmonic coefficients
Authors: Iz, HB 
Keywords: Autoregressive disturbances
Chandler wobble
Observation differencing
Polar motion
Prediction
Variable amplitude model
Issue Date: 2008
Publisher: Springer
Source: Journal of geodesy, 2008, v. 82, no. 12, p. 871-881 How to cite?
Journal: Journal of geodesy 
Abstract: A time dependent amplitude model was proposed for the analysis and prediction of polar motion time series. The formulation was implemented to analyze part of the new combined solution, EOP (IERS) C 04, daily polar motion time series of 14 years length using a statistical model with first order autoregressive disturbances. A new solution approach, where the serial correlations of the disturbances are eliminated by sequentially differencing the measurements, was used to estimate the model parameters using weighted least squares. The new model parsimoniously represents the 14-year time series with 0.5 mas rms fit, close to the reported 0.1 mas observed pole position precisions for the x and y components. The model can also predict 6 months into the future with less than 4 mas rms prediction error for both polar motion components, and down to sub mas for one-step ahead prediction as validated using a set of daily time series data that are not used in the estimation.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13497
ISSN: 0949-7714
EISSN: 1432-1394
DOI: 10.1007/s00190-008-0215-z
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