Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/12305
Title: Forecasting construction manpower demand : a vector error correction model
Authors: Wong, JMW
Chan, APC 
Chiang, YH 
Keywords: Co-integration
Forecasting
Manpower demand
Vector error-correction model
Issue Date: 2007
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Building and environment, 2007, v. 42, no. 8, p. 3030-3041 How to cite?
Journal: Building and environment 
Abstract: Manpower demand forecast is an essential component to facilitate manpower planning. The purpose of this paper is to establish a long-run relationship between the aggregate demand for construction manpower and a group of inter-related economic variables including construction output, wage, material price, bank rate and productivity, based on dynamic econometric modelling techniques. The Johansen co-integration procedure and the likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of a long-run and stable relationship among the variables. A vector error correction (VEC) model is then developed for forecasting purposes and is verified against various diagnostic statistical criteria. The construction output and labour productivity are found to be the most significant and sensitive factors determining the demand of construction manpower. The model and the factors identified may assist in predicting manpower demand trend and formulating policies, training and retraining programmes tailored to deal effectively with the industry's labour resource requirements in this critical sector of economy.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/12305
ISSN: 0360-1323
EISSN: 1873-684X
DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2006.07.024
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