Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1124
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor | School of Hotel and Tourism Management | - |
dc.creator | Wong, KF | - |
dc.creator | Song, H | - |
dc.creator | Chon, KKS | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-12-11T08:23:20Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2014-12-11T08:23:20Z | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0261-5177 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1124 | - |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Pergamon Press | en_US |
dc.rights | Tourism Management © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. The journal web site is located at http://www.sciencedirect.com. | en_US |
dc.subject | Forecasting performance | en_US |
dc.subject | Vector autoregressive process | en_US |
dc.subject | Over parameterization | en_US |
dc.subject | Bayesian approach | en_US |
dc.title | Bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting | en_US |
dc.type | Journal/Magazine Article | en_US |
dc.description.otherinformation | Author name used in this publication: Kevin K. F. Wong | en_US |
dc.description.otherinformation | Author name used in this publication: Kaye S. Chon | en_US |
dc.identifier.spage | 773 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | 780 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 27 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 5 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.017 | - |
dcterms.abstract | This study extends the existing forecasting accuracy debate in the tourism literature by examining the forecasting performance of various vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In particular, this study seeks to ascertain whether the introduction of the Bayesian restrictions (priors) to the unrestricted VAR process would lead to an improvement in forecasting performance in terms of achieving a higher degree of accuracy. The empirical results based on a data set on the demand for Hong Kong tourism show that the Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models invariably outperform their unrestricted VAR counterparts. It is noteworthy that the univariate BVAR was found to be the best performing model among all the competing models examined. | - |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | en_US |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Tourism management, Oct. 2006, v. 27, no. 5, p. 773-780 | - |
dcterms.isPartOf | Tourism management | - |
dcterms.issued | 2006-10 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000239369600005 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1879-3193 | - |
dc.identifier.rosgroupid | r28625 | - |
dc.description.ros | 2005-2006 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journal | - |
dc.description.oa | Accepted Manuscript | en_US |
dc.identifier.FolderNumber | OA_IR/PIRA | en_US |
dc.description.pubStatus | Published | en_US |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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06-Bayesian.pdf | Pre-published version | 121.76 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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